Türkiye’s current account is expected to record a rare surplus of $426 million in June due partly to tourism and lower energy bills, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, while the deficit was seen at $41 billion in 2023.
The June estimate is based on the median response of 14 economists, whose poll forecasts ranged from a $1.1 billion surplus to a $1 billion deficit.
Türkiye’s trade deficit, a major component of the current account, declined 37.3% year-on-year in June to $5.16 billion, data showed.
The median forecast of six economists for the current account deficit for the full year of 2023 was $41 billion, with estimates ranging between $38 billion and $50.8 billion.
“We expect the current account balance to improve sharply to a surplus in June on seasonal factors (including) a lower energy import bill and high tourism income, (and) monetary tightening that started after the elections,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Since June, the central bank has hiked its policy rate to 17.5% from 8.5% and pledged further tightening to fight inflation, while the government has introduced tax and fee hikes to boost budget income.
After President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s May election victory, the government is expected to update its economic forecasts for the next three years in September.
The central bank is scheduled to announce June’s current account data at 0700 GMT on August 11.